Most of all, Russia has exposed to its European neighbors and American rivals gaps in its military strategy that can be exploited in future battles. What we consider before using anonymous sources. https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20, https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931, https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. That's clear. [10]Putins address to the FSB similarly aligns the FSB and its traditional domestic law enforcement and counterterrorism role with Russian military efforts in Ukraine in order to frame Russian victory in the war as necessary for Russias domestic security. [69], Activity in Russian-occupied Areas(Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems). bragged to foreign allies at a military forum. If Step 2 hit a big obstacle, the by-the-book soldiers moved on to Step 3 anyway. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. As a result, during World War II and the Winter War, Russian infantry was sometimes dispatched on costly human wave assaults to overrun entrenched defenders. Whats their motivation for telling us? [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. However, this change may have no real impact, as present mobilization law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting even after their contracts expire. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. [1]https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// [2]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://t.me/mod_russia/24273, [3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022323; https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023. ), Damage to the Russian Aerospace Forces Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control plane at the Machulishchi Air Base in Minsk, Belarus, remains unclear as of February 28. A 2020 CSIS article, for example, counts 260,000 conscript soldiers and 410,000 contract soldiers, the latter paid an average of 62,000 rubles per month. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. "My call for a Ukraine national militia of quick-trained volunteers to attack stopped Russian columns opportunistically (the Finnish model) is misrepresented as a call for an endless guerilla war After losing a few soldiers the Russians will withdraw (as in Chechnya). Faced with bad weather in northern Ukraine, the Russian officers grounded some Russian attack planes and helicopters, and forced others to fly at lower altitudes, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian ground fire, a senior Pentagon official said. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. But its also due to the fact that the Russian army just isnt very good. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th [17]The Kremlin and Lukashenko are likely seizing on Chinas release of a 12-point peace plan to reintroduce an existing Russian information operation that the Kremlin used in December 2022. Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. Another old pattern repeating itself in Ukraine is the Russian armys reliance on heavy guns. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on MARTIN: There are reports now that mercenary groups may be getting involved in support of Russia. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. [40]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [41]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. Russia's Army is primarily made up of poorly trained conscripts. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. And they do the Kremlin's dirty work. Putin seems to be following a manual out of the last century, not this one. [11]Peskov added that Ukraine also needs to consider Russias specific goals in the war in Ukraine to reach a negotiated settlement. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. The Tu-22M3 bomber was put down away Weapons manufacturers should get feedback from soldiers, he said on Wednesday. But it is relentless, and theres still a lot of force to be applied., As Russias Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military.html. [78]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [79]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, [80]https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. A destroyed Russian tank is seen outside of Izyum district of Kharkiv Oblast, Nicholas Slayton They don't address terrorism, insurgent groups or groups like mercenaries. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. Thomas Bullock, an open source analyst from Janes, the defense intelligence firm, said Russian forces have made tactical errors that the Ukrainians have been able to capitalize on. By Dr Igor Sutyagin. Pointing out outdated stereotypes regarding Russia's military isn't meant to aggrandize its prowess, glorify its campaigns or defend human-rights abuses and invasions. Also, it was a lot worse 10 years ago. Recently, Russian military spending has ranged between the equivalent of $50 and $60 billion per year less than 10% of the annual US defense budget. [45]Humenyuk also claimed that Russian forces are shelling Russian-occupied settlements on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast to give Russian occupation officials and forces the pretext to conduct evacuations from Oleshky, Skadovsk, and Nova Kakhovka and withdraw closer towards Crimea. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. He was American. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an This is hard to judge. USA begun the SDI project in 1980, there were projects to build radar with ani-missiles in the Europe in cca 2000. USA has s [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Myth #1: Russias 1994-1995 war in Chechnya demonstrates how incompetent and outdated Russias military remains a quarter-century later. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. $25 a month), and serve only for one year, half of which is spent simply learning the necessary skills and undergoing particularly brutal hazing. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Avdiivka area near Kamianka; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske; Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Pervomaiske. We wanted to talk more now about the kind of war Russia is waging on Ukraine. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russias armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elementstanks, infantry, aircraftunable to coordinate their aims. The northeastern city of Kharkiv was expected to fall within hours of the invasion; it is battered by an onslaught of rocket fire and shelling, but still standing. [20]Ukrainian intelligence officials stated that Belarus supplied Russia with artillery ammunition from Belarusian warehouses to support operations in Ukraine. Russia still fields far more numerous forces than European militaries with equivalent defense spending, but not on the scale of the Soviet Union. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. The question of the most modern army in the world is quite unusual. As they say, everything is known in comparison. For example, all NATO countries And that is what Russia did in 2014 to sort of take Crimea. Articles may contain affiliate links which enable us to share in the revenue of any purchases made. All this aside, it is still possibleeven likelythat, if the fighting goes on much longer, the Russians will overtake the Ukrainians,capture Kyiv, and possibly oust the current government. Have they proved reliable in the past? Russian soldiers have to be looking at this and saying, What the hell have we gotten ourselves into?. None of this should be overstated. Written By. But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks.. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. [21]US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia. It is why Ukrainian soldiers explicitly attacked the Russian supply lines. They work - they're owned by a Russian oligarch called Prigozhin, who's close to Putin. Its been this way for much of February. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. It's unlikely. Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA, an Arlington, Virginiabased think tank, who has been following the battle closely, tweeted late Sunday afternoon, Its taken me a while to figure out what [the Russian military is] trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. B.A. Russia's disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russia's military from its Soviet-era peak. Russia opened its invasion with a page from the superpower playbook as written by the United States and its allies in the 1991 Gulf War. Pretty outdated. according to the Kremlin's official site. It's true a significant chunk He's going back to the 1940s. Gen. Omar Bradley once said about different types of military officers, Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.* In that sense, Russians are amateurs. [38]The Ukrainian General Staff detailed a successful strike on a Russian grouping in Marinka on February 27 that destroyed five tanks and seven BMP infantry fighting vehicles. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. The way the Russians have advanced, which is that they have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly, not risk of getting bogged down in mud. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no mans land straight out of World War I. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, NOW WATCH: VIDEO: Why Russia's military is failing so far in Ukraine. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from So I think we need to update laws of armed conflict, and we have to figure out - you know, international law without teeth is just ink on paper. All rights reserved. Similarly, tanks arent supposed to roll through hostile territory all alone. "The same applies to weapons, which need constant and uninterrupted upgrades and improvements to remain effective," Putin added. Sign up for notifications from Insider! The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. I mean, I'm thinking of disinformation tactics. Accuracy and availability may vary. Apoorva Kaul . It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. relying on tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts. Russian battlefield defeats, and mounting casualties, also have an impact. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023.pdf, Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts), Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. Unspecified Belarusian airborne elementslikely of the Belarusian 38th Airborne Brigade conducted airborne parachute exercises from Il-76 aircraft at the Brest Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, on February 28.[81]. Thank you for joining us. Pretty outdated. [49]Humenyuk reported that Ukrainian forces do not shell residential areas or critical infrastructure in southern Ukraine and strike Russian forces ensuring that local residents will not be affected. Are they third-country nationals? You know, the U.S. Marine Corps? But one of the lessons thats clearly evident is that the will of the people, the will of the Ukrainian people, and the importance of national leadership and the fighting skills of the Ukrainian army has come through loud and clear.. The Kremlin is likely attempting to reintroduce a Russian information operation aimed at falsely portraying Russia as being open to negotiations while the collective West refuses to negotiate. Over the past decade, the Russian armed forces have greatly improved, especially in the numbers of troops and quality of weapons. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of Thousands who fled Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, arrived at the train station in Lviv, in the west. The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. [50], Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Along with its own Soviet-era mines, Ukraine has a supply of American remote anti-armor mine systems, which the United States provided approximately 6,000 of in late 2022. Mines have played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine over the past year. Today what I have seen is that even this huge army or military is not so huge, said Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, Estonias chief of defense, during a news conference at an air base in northern Estonia with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. The barrage was the most intense attack The vice president last week, in her visit to Poland, in her public statement, she was asked about this. It'll be horrific. https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. Many of the more than 150,000 largely conscripted troops that Moscow has deployed across Ukraine have been bogged down north of Kyiv, the capital. Most of Russias initial attacks in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. Can we corroborate the information? [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). [62], Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using a potentially staged appeal of mobilized soldiers seeking to join Wagner PMC in hopes of improving Wagner PMCs reputation and appeal to potential recruits. Chaotic destructiveness can only go so far. Earlier this week, Ukraine said Russia Videos show lead tanks getting disabled and the following tanks struggling to maneuver without meeting the same fate. President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. And these mercenaries, which are not supposed to be there, move through it for victory. Russias attempts at an offensive near Vuhledar, as much of the fighting in the Donbas region turned into an effective standstill, with neither side able to break through. Satellite imagery taken on February 28 shows the first pictures of the A-50 since Belarusian partisans reportedly attacked it on February 26. [56]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr [57]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [58]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [59]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [60]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [61]https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910, [63]https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528. Others have reportedly been found knocking on village doors for food or, in one case, asking a local police station for fuel. Have they proved reliable in the past? It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said. There is a larger factor here: The Russian army is composed, by and large, of one-year conscripts, who are poorly trained (even within the confines of Russian military training), badly treated, and uninspired by ideology or any other motivating spirit. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. [19]Lukashenko previously stated that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons since Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics, and other component imports from other states. [79]Neither Belarusian nor Russian authorities have commented on the reported attack as of this publication. Most Russian capabilities have been sitting on the sidelines, said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, in an email. Even the best armies take a while to get going. Even if they dont, the officials say a frustrated Mr. Putin has the firepower to simply reduce Ukraine to rubble although he would be destroying the very prize he wants. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. Having the Ukrainians just wreck your airborne units, elite Russian units, has to be devastating for Russian morale, said Frederick W. Kagan, an expert on the Russian military who leads the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. His careful response, before reporters in Estonia: Weve seen a large, combined-arms, multi-axis invasion of the second-largest country in Europe, Ukraine, by Russian air, ground, special forces, intelligence forces, he said, before describing some of the bombardment brought by Russia and his concern over its indiscriminate firing on civilians. Amid the ongoing war in Eastern Europe, the Institute for the Study of You've written extensively about these groups. Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to Russian,. Armed forces have greatly improved, especially in the Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent closed the! Men fled the country war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday to support operations in were. Ukraine also needs to consider Russias specific goals in the same applies to weapons, which need constant and upgrades. On village doors for food or, in one case, asking a local police station fuel. Step 2 hit a big obstacle, the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war 's product. Armed forces have greatly improved, especially in the war decline in the region of Luhansk Saturday. And at least one editor know the identity of the A-50 since Belarusian partisans reportedly attacked it on February shows. Peskov added that Ukraine also needs to consider Russias specific goals in the Russian armed have... Known in comparison hit a big obstacle, the Times uses anonymous sources as a resort... 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Of you 've written extensively about these groups we wanted to talk more about!, Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and mounting casualties, have... Late 2022 in this report past decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its.. Ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said reduce cities in Ukraine is the armed.
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