File. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. File usage on Commons. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. 26th February 2023. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Hover over a district for more information. Analysis>. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. The candidate of Labour Party, Thaddeus Attah, has been declared the winner of the Eti-Osa Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Clickme! The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. You can also view these ratings as a table. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
