Sandform

The Road To Newcastle

With all bar one of the Fast-Track Qualifiers for Finals Day at Easter having taken place in each category, now seems a good time to have a look at those who have definitely booked their ticket for Good Friday and assess their relative chances in the Championship races themselves. There may well be some strong contenders who took part in the Qualifiers but didn’t win, whilst with one Qualifier still to be run in each category there is still time for a solid challenger to emerge.

Of course there will be those who haven’t contested a Qualifier at all, but have run the prerequisite number of times during the winter season and will be rated higher enough to make the cut at the six-day entry stage. This is all part of the intrigue!

Three-Year-Old (6f)

Newcastle 18th October 2022 (6f conditions, Tapeta)

On the face of it Never Just A Dream faced a stiff task in this first Fast Track Qualifier to be run in the All-Weather Championships season, as at the time he had a BHA mark of 93 whilst three of his six rivals held three-digit ratings. However, one thing he did have in his favour was that he already had winning form at the track, landing a nursery under a positive ride over course and distance the previous month, before finding himself out of his depth in the Middle Park. Given another attacking ride here, he never looked in any real danger of being caught, ending up beating Shouldvebeenaring by just over two lengths with Alpha Capture just over a length away in third.

His trainer Ismail Mohammed immediately stated that the colt would be sent for a campaign in the Middle East and, at the time of writing, had finished sixth of 14 in a conditions event at Sharjah and fifth of 12 in a Group 3 at Meydan, so whether he does have a crack at the Championship Final remains up in the air. If he is given the green light then much will depend on how many other pace angles he is up against, but his obvious liking for the conditions is a big plus so he shouldn’t be underestimated if he does turn up.

Wolverhampton 3rd December 2022 (6f novice, Tapeta)

Having won two of his three starts on turf (out of his depth in the Group 3 Acomb at York in between), Shaquille was sent off 2-1 favourite to make a successful AW debut in this Qualifier and he made no mistake, always travelling well before finding plenty when asked to go and win his race, passing the post a length ahead of Harry Magnus with Tenjin just over a length away in third.

With his main market rival Looking For Lynda (officially rated 9lb higher) again appearing not to stay the trip, this race may not have taken that much winning and he hasn’t been seen since, so perhaps we need him to return before Good Friday to assess how he has wintered. However, if Julie Camacho’s colt does turn out again in the coming weeks and puts up an encouraging performance, he would have to be respected if allowed to take his chance at Easter.

Southwell 31st January 2023 (6f conditions, Tapeta)

This FTQ should have been run at Kempton eight days earlier, but with that meeting abandoned due to freezing fog the race was transferred here.

Only three runners turned up for the rearranged contest, but despite the small field the race was truly run with Richard Hannon’s Shouldvebeenaring coming from last to beat Alpha Capture by just under a length, with the pace-setting Glorious Angel just over a length back in third. The first two ran very close to the form they showed when second and third behind Never Just A Dream at Newcastle in October, which does suggest they both need to find more if they are to win the Championship itself at Easter, especially if their Newcastle conqueror does turn up.

Conclusion

Much will depend on whether NEVER JUST A DREAM returns from the Middle East to contend the Final at Easter, because he will have so much going for him if he does. Not only has he emphatically proved his liking for the conditions, he holds the Southwell FTQ first and second Shouldvebeenaring and Alpha Capture on their meeting at Newcastle last October.

Shaquille would have to be respected if turning up, but there is still time for another serious contender to emerge with the final Qualifier (the Listed Spring Cup) due to be run over 7f at Lingfield on March 4th.

Previous Winners

2022 El Caballo
2021 Diligent Harry
2020 No Race
2019 Pizzicato
2018 Corinthia Knight
2017 Second Thought
2016 Sea Of Flames
2015 Four Seasons
2014 Ertijaal

Fillies And Mares (7f)

Lingfield 27th October 2022 (1m Filles’ Listed, Polytrack)

With the favourite Crystal Caprice appearing to go wrong inside the last furlong of this FTQ the form could be questioned, but what is not in doubt is that the winner Queen Aminatu very much impressed with the turn of foot she produced down the wide outside, mowing down her rivals to beat Roman Mist by over two lengths with Internationalangel half a length away in third. This gave William Haggas his fourth win in the race since 2012 and the filly again advertised her wellbeing with victory by a similar margin in another Listed contest over the extended 7f at Deauville a month later. What a handicap snip she must have been when winning off a mark of 75 (also at Lingfield) last April!

It remains to be seen if the filly takes her chance at Easter or even if she is seen again in the meantime, but I wouldn’t be too worried if she was sent straight to Newcastle as her trainer would be sure to have her in top shape. The return to Tapeta wouldn’t be an issue either, having only gone down narrowly at Newcastle in her first two racecourse outings before winning easily at Wolverhampton.

Dundalk 4th November 2022 (1m Fillies’ Listed, Polytrack)

Sent off 5-2 favourite, Juncture was fully entitled to win this race as she was the highest-rated filly in the 14-strong field and had already been successful in another Listed contest over course and distance earlier in the year, but it was still hard not to be taken by the way she went about it. She was produced with a strong run from midfield and eventually won going away, beating Voice Of Angels by just over two lengths with Smile Of Love half a length away in third. She had blinkers on for the first time, but it’s hard to say what effect they had given she was clearly the best horse in the race in any case.

After this win it was unclear whether Ger Lyons’ filly would race again as a 4yo and she hasn’t been seen since, albeit there wouldn’t have been many options for her unless she had gone to the Middle East. Placed in all three attempts in Group 3 company, she clearly has the ability to win a race at that level which would obviously enhance her value, but if she was given the green light to run at Newcastle then she would need to be taken very seriously. She has such a fine record fresh that if she wasn’t seen again beforehand it wouldn’t be a problem at all.

Southwell 1st January 2023 (7f Fillies’ conditions, Tapeta)

Manaafith was sent off at 8-15 to maintain her unbeaten AW record in this Qualifier despite not having that much in hand of her four rivals on official ratings (two of her opponents were rated within 2lb of her). She got the job done, beating Aramis Grey by just under a length with River Pride less than two lengths away in third, albeit her success was more workmanlike than impressive. However, Roger Varian’s filly went on to beat the boys in a FTQ for the Mile Championship at Lingfield in early February (see below) which rather complicates matters.

She would obviously be a major player in whichever option she takes up and although she hasn’t raced at Newcastle, she has won both of her starts on Tapeta elsewhere, including this race. If she did contest the Final of this category then she would clearly be a major player, with the return to 7f not an issue.

Conclusion

The Fillies And Mares Championship can often be one of the weakest events on Finals Day, but if the winners of the three FTQs to be run so far were to turn up it could be one of the strongest. Plenty will depend on which race Manaafith ends up contesting with the Mile also an option, whilst at the time of writing it’s unclear whether Juncture will be seen on the track again, let alone at Easter. However, QUEEN AMINATU was so impressive when winning her Qualifier at Lingfield in the autumn and if allowed to take her chance at Easter she will make them all go. The last FTQ in this category is a 7f conditions event due to be run at Lingfield on February 18th.

Previous Winners

2022 Highfield Princess
2021 Pholas
2020 No Race
2019 Heavenly Holly
2018 Diagnostic
2017 Realtra
2016 Volunteer Point
2015 Fresles
2014 Living The Life

Sprint (6f)

Lingfield 12th November 2022 (6f Listed, Polytrack)

Few FTQs have had a finish quite as thrilling as this one, with Summerghand rattling home to beat 2019 winner Judicial (who made his effort at exactly the same time in this contest) by half a length, with Exalted Angel just over a length away in third. The story of David O’Meara’s gelding is a remarkable one, in that even at the age of eight he was able to win the Ayr Gold Cup under a penalty last September and record his second success in Listed company in this contest.

On the face of it the stiff 6f at Newcastle shouldn’t be a problem given that he has winning form at Pontefract and has a good record on the Newmarket July Course. He has won on Tapeta at Wolverhampton, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that he has finished seventh and eighth in two tries at the Northumberland venue, albeit they were a few years back. Given what he has achieved in recent years it’s not easy to dismiss him for top honours on Good Friday even as a nine-year-old, but he did come up a bit short in another Qualifier at Lingfield in February (see below) so would need to improve on that if he is to reverse the form with any of those who finished ahead of him, should they take their chance.

Newcastle 2nd December 2022 (5f conditions, Tapeta)

It’s possible to pick holes in the form of this Qualifier with the warm favourite Art Power disappointing (not for the first time nor the last), but what cannot be underplayed is the performance of the winner Fine Wine. Not only did he make all the running, he proved very game when challenged on both sides by the placed horses and was going away at the line, beating reliable yardstick Exalted Angel by just under a length with the talented Irish challenger Logo Hunter half a length away in third. He even managed to shave 0.05sec off the course record.

This took his record at Newcastle to 1421 which is clearly a major plus with the Sprint Championship back here at Easter in mind, but Scott Dixon’s gelding is very much a 5f specialist with all nine wins coming over that trip, while he has finished well held in two tries over 6f at Southwell (both on Fibresand). If the Final was over the minimum trip he would be very high on the list, but it isn’t so those stamina doubts remain.

Lingfield 4th February 2023 (6f Listed, Polytrack)

This year’s Kachy Stakes was a warm race in its own right, but as a guide to Good Friday I believe it may prove key. Annaf was clearly expected to run a big race in his bid to make it 3-3 on Polytrack for the year, being sent off just 6-5 against some smart performers, but despite having to come from well back he got there in plenty of time to beat the errant Diligent Harry by a neck. Exalted Angel was half a length away in third and Summerghand another half-length back in fourth. It was a bit of a messy race and the winning margin would suggest things were tight at the end, but looking at it again Mick Appleby’s colt won this rather snugly, taking his record on the AW to 5-9.

I can see no reason why the beaten horses should reverse the form, even though Summerghand was carrying a 3lb penalty and returning from 84 days off (is proven fresh). Newcastle will certainly hold no fears for Annaf with his record at the track reading 1142, his second coming in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes last summer. After this race it was suggested that the next time we would see the colt would be for the Sprint Championship at Easter and his record suggests that his absence until then won’t be an issue.

Conclusion

If the Sprint Championship was over 5f then Fine Wine would have to be a serious contender given his liking for Newcastle, but over 6f doubts over his stamina remain. ANNAF also loves the place, but has no question mark against his ability to see out the trip and has started off 2023 in cracking form on Polytrack (3-3), with his success in the FTQ at Lingfield in February a career-best.

The 2021 Sprint Championship winner Summerghand continues to defy his age and given what he has achieved within the past six months it’s not easy to dismiss him, but he has failed to shine in two previous visits to Newcastle and was beaten fair and square behind Annaf at Lingfield. The last FTQ takes place over 6f at Chantilly on March 4th and France has a fine record in the Sprint Championship, including winning with Bouttemont at Newcastle last year, but it will take some performance to knock Annaf off pole position.

Previous Winners

2022 Bouttemont
2021 Summerghand
2020 No Race
2019 Kachy
2018 City Light
2017 Kimberella
2016 Alben Star
2015 Pretend
2014 Alben Star

Mile (1m)

Kempton 28th November 2022 (1m Listed, Polytrack)

When you get the 20-1 outsider in a field of four winning after having enjoyed a soft lead from the outset, it’s only fair to question the merit of the form. Add to that the fact that the runner-up couldn’t be given away in the market and the third was returning from another 220-day absence and it merely confirms the impression that this isn’t form to be relied on. That is perhaps a little unfair to the winner The Wizard Of Eye, though, as although Stan Moore’s colt definitely did enjoy the run of the race, he was pulling right away again at the end, beating Tinker Toy by over three lengths with Cash a neck away in third.

The first-time cheekpieces may also have helped the winner, but this was only his second win in 14 starts so he wouldn’t necessarily be high on the list for the Mile Championship at Easter. After the race it was hinted that he may be on his travels abroad in any case.

Newcastle 13th January 2023 (1m conditions, Tapeta)

Chichester certainly wasn’t favoured by the weights in this event (he held an official mark of 93 while three of his five rivals had three-digit ratings), but that did stop his supporters from backing him into 9-4 joint-favourite. They were proved right too, for after having cruised into the contest Keith Dalgleish’s gelding forged clear to beat Intuitive by just over three lengths with Abolish over five lengths away in third. His proven stamina for further was clearly an asset over this stiff 1m and this victory made it 2-2 over course and distance (his other win was gained by over fourth lengths).

The other joint-favourite Excel Power finished last and reportedly ran flat, which could place a small question mark over the merit of the form, but that would be nit-picking. The fact is that Chichester slammed a horse officially rated 8lb above him into second and, as a result, is now officially rated 103 himself so he is well up to the kind of level required to win the big race on Good Friday. His fine record fresh also means it wouldn’t be a problem if he wasn’t seen again beforehand.

Lingfield 4th February 2023 (1m Listed, Polytrack)

This contest, the first ever running of the Tandridge Stakes, was a fascinating race to watch but it raised as many questions as it answered. There is no doubt that Manaafith produced a tidy turn of foot down the wide outside to win going away and make it 6-6 on the AW, but was she the best horse in the race? She had just under two lengths to spare over Sir Busker at the line with Lord Of The Lodge (racing over 1m for the first time) a short head away in third, but the runner-up gave away a lot more ground at the start than he was beaten by, so with a cleaner break you would have to think the result would have been different.

After the race Jim Crowley’s quote about the winner was interesting; “The race set up nicely for Manaafith who loves the AW. I think the plan is to go to Finals Day and then she will be covered by Minzaal, I believe.” The problem is he didn’t say which race on Finals Day. You would think it would be the Mile, but that’s not confirmed as yet and although Roger Varian’s filly has winning form on Tapeta elsewhere and saw the trip out well enough on this sharp track, the stiffer 1m at Newcastle would pose a different question.

The runner-up Sir Busker was another who was using this race as a stepping stone to targets in the Middle East, but should he be aimed at the Mile Championship in April (he would need to run twice more on the AW or win the last remaining FTQ in the meantime) then he would be interesting. Last seen finishing third behind Baaeed and Mishriff in the Juddmonte International at York last August, William Knight’s gelding would clearly need to start a lot better than he did here, but he is 1-1 at Newcastle (over this trip) and rather like with Chichester, his proven stamina over further is an asset in a truly run race over that stiff 1m.

Conclusion

The FTQ won by The Wizard Of Eye at Kempton in November was a most unsatisfactory affair on so many levels, so it seems best to ignore it for the purposes of assessing the main contenders in this category come April 7th.

Manaafith also has the option of the Fillies And Mares Championship, but having already beaten the boys in the Lingfield Qualifier in February the Mile would seem the most likely target in her bid to make it 7-7 on the AW. There is just the question of how she would cope with the 1m trip on the stiff track at Newcastle where she is unraced, so perhaps her Lingfield victim Sir Busker would be more interesting were he to end up taking his chance. He is 1-1 at Newcastle and a strongly run race over the searching 1m there is ideal for a horse like him with proven stamina.

CHICHESTER seems a lot more likely to turn up, though, and has to be high on the list. He loves Newcastle and made it 2-2 over 1m there when bolting up in the FTQ in January. He has a fine record fresh, so he doesn’t need to run again beforehand and at this stage he would be the choice of those we have seen so far. The final Qualifier in this category is the Listed Wulfruna Stakes over 7f at Wolverhampton on March 11th and that race could well throw up another contender or two.

Previous Winners

2022 My Oberon
2021 Khuzaam
2020 No Race
2019 Oh This Is Us
2018 Lucky Team
2017 Sovereign Debt
2016 Captain Joy
2015 Grey Mirage
2014 Captain Cat

Marathon (2m)

Newcastle 10th December 2022 (2m conditions, Tapeta)

The first Qualifier in this category was due to be run at this fixture, but the meeting was abandoned shortly before the first race due to safety concerns over the track (the ground was frozen just beneath the surface). However, with just three runners declared for this FTQ (the trio priced up at 1-5, 4-1 and 25-1) it’s doubtful the contest would have been of much significance at Easter. A significant problem with this race was that just three days beforehand, Kempton staged a valuable 2m handicap which was the final of a series for stayers on the AW. Two horses who ran in the Kempton race had contested the Newcastle Qualifier the previous year, so this is something that may need to be looked at for the future with regards to timing.

Southwell 8th January 2023 (2m 110yds conditions, Tapeta)

This FTQ was certainly a lot more interesting than the Newcastle one would have been with Solent Gateway, who was second-favourite for the abandoned contest, only fifth of the seven runners here. In a race run at a good clip in the circumstances, Berkshire Rocco kept on strongly to beat Rainbow Dreamer by just over a length with last year’s Marathon champion Earlofthecotswolds eight lengths back in third.

The winner had some classy turf form against his name, including being successful in Listed company and going down by just a neck in the 2020 St Leger. Andrew Balding’s gelding certainly took to this surface well enough and also clearly relished the test of stamina. The form looks watertight with the runner-up a reliable yardstick, so all in all this could prove key form come Good Friday.

Kempton 8th February 2023 (2m conditions, Polytrack)

The form of this FTQ looks even stronger than the Southwell race and its significance may be felt much further afield than at Newcastle. The only downside is that the pace was modest, which wouldn’t have suited a few.

William Haggas’s Earl Of Tyrone, who had been successful in Listed company on turf in Ireland last summer, was making his stable/AW debut after 136 days off having changed hands for 300,000gns in October. The market suggested the gelding was expected to run a big race and he did just that, travelling ominously well and finding plenty when asked to beat Berkshire Rocco by just over two lengths, with Solent Gateway over a length away in third and Earlofthecoltswolds and Rainbow Dreamer further behind.

We are unlikely to be seeing the winner at Newcastle, though, as it was announced that he would be straight off to Australia for his next outing (probably in the Sydney Cup). However, Berkshire Rocco did his Good Friday prospects no harm at all in my opinion, given that he tried to come from last in a steadily run race so he did well to finish as close as he did behind a clearly classy opponent. The stiffer track at Newcastle can only be in his favour and I can see no reason why any of those who finished behind him here should reverse the form come April.

Conclusion

With the Kempton FTQ winner Earl Of Tyrone Australia-bound, his nearest pursuer BERKSHIRE ROCCO seems to have plenty going for him. Not only did he do well to finish second in this contest given the race wasn’t really run to suit him, he handled the Tapeta really well when winning at Southwell and the stiffer track at Newcastle can only be in his favour.

The final Qualifier is a 2m conditions event at Wolverhampton on March 11th, but that may well feature the same sort of horses we have seen in the Qualifiers already staged and this category could probably do with another new kid on the block.

Previous Winners

2022 Earlofthecotswolds
2021 Ranch Hand
2020 No Race
2019 Watersmeet
2018 Funny Kid
2017 Winning Story
2016 Moonrise Landing
2015 Mymatechris
2014 Litigant

Middle Distance (1m2f)

Lingfield 12th November 2022 (1m2f Listed, Polytrack)

This renewal of the Churchill Stakes saw one of the most dramatic finishes of any race in recent months, not just on the AW but anywhere. Quite how Missed The Cut managed to make up a good six lengths from the home bend to get up and beat Algiers by a short head with Harrovian over two lengths back in third, still takes some believing especially as the rest of the field finished well spread out, so it wasn’t as though the leader was stopping (they took 0.22sec off the course record). George Boughey’s colt, who had completed a hat-trick on turf last year before a lesser effort in a Group 2 at Deauville, had no problem with the 89-day absence and is clearly a nice prospect having only made his racecourse debut last April. However, it remains up in the air as to whether we will see him at Newcastle in April as his next outing is likely to be under Oisin Murphy in a Group 3 at Riyadh on February 25th.

We probably won’t see the runner-up either as the Crisfords’ gelding is currently enjoying himself in Dubai, having won a couple of Group 2 contests at Meydan since the Lingfield race, so any relevance to Good Friday may be via a couple of those who finished further back (see below).

Deauville 29th November 2022 (1m1f 110yds Listed, Polytrack)

This renewal of the Prix Lyphard isn’t that easy to assess, but there is no doubt that Yoozuna did quicken up well to beat Dolayli by just over a length, with Sundoro just under 2l back in third and the previous year’s winner Integrant back in sixth. This was only the colt’s second win in eight starts, but he was making his AW debut so at least he remains open to improvement on artificial surfaces. If his trainer Christophe Ferland believes it’s worth making the journey, it would be folly to ignore him.

Newcastle 12th January 2023 (1m2f conditions, Tapeta)

The two Gosden-trained geldings who finished behind Missed The Cut in the Churchill Stakes two months earlier renewed rivalry here, but the form was completely turned around with Forest Of Dean (fifth at Lingfield) beating Ziggy by just over a length with Harrovian (third at Lingfield) a short head back in third. The market got it completely wrong, but understandably so as there was over four lengths between the pair when they met in November so it seemed optimistic to suggest the result would be different. However, it does go to show how things can turn around if you change the racing surface.

Forest Of Dean had already won over this course and distance as a three-year-old, while Harrovian was having his first try on Tapeta let alone his first experience of Newcastle, and it certainly showed by the way the winner forged clear late on. He will surely be seen back for the Middle Distance Championship on Good Friday in his bid to make it 3-3 over course and distance, but he will likely contest the Winter Derby back at Lingfield first, a race he won in 2021 and finished fourth in last year.

Conclusion

If either of the exciting pair who finished first and second in the Churchill Stakes in November (Missed the Cut or Algiers) were to turn up then they would both have serious chances, but they are currently busy in the Middle East so it may be left to the fifth horse FOREST OF DEAN to carry the flag for that contest. He went on to reverse Lingfield running with his stablemate Harrovian at Newcastle in January, thereby confirming his liking for that track which is a major advantage for him.

Should French challenger Yoozuna be given the green light to make the journey then he would have to be respected, having made a successful AW debut in the Listed Prix Lyphard. The final FTQ is the Group 3 Winter Derby over 1m2f at Lingfield on February 25th, which may see the 2021 winner Forest Of Dean bid to regain his crown.

Previous Winners

2022 Living Legend
2021 Bangkok
2020 No Race
2019 Matterhorn
2018 Victory Bond
2017 Convey
2016 Grendisar
2015 Tryster
2014 Grandeur

The All-Weather Championships take place at Newcastle on Good Friday April 7th with over £1 million in prize money, complemented by the Burradon Stakes, a Listed race for three-year-olds run over 1m.

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by David Bellingham