It was around 30 years ago whilst reading a book called Betting For A Living by Nick Mordin that I was introduced to the concept of performance patterns. Basically the idea is that if you look at a horse’s entire form in a tabular arrangement any patterns will jump out at you, such as the horse only seems to win over a certain trip, or only on certain ground or perhaps only at a certain track. These particular preferences may seem like common sense, but looking at the form in this way can also reveal patterns that aren’t so obvious when looking at form in traditional formats, such as the horse is different gravy when going left-handed, or their wins only occur in small fields, or one of my personal favourites is that they never seem to win when returning from a significant absence.
Nick used to write each horse’s form down manually on what he called ‘file cards’ which must have been quite a chore (even the thought of using a typewriter makes me shudder these days), but fortunately things have changed a bit since then with the arrival of online sources of form and/or electronic form books. Despite their wide availability, however, people using these tools are still in the minority of punters, so it’s an angle well worth exploring. Racing on the All-Weather is an area in which this approach can be especially useful, such as a horse’s preference for a particular racing surface (Polytrack, Tapeta or Fibresand) being there for all to see.
A few years ago there was a horse trained by Patrick Haslam named China Castle, and the way he was campaigned is a perfect example of how performance patterns would have been so useful back then. Basically he would return just after New Year, win a few races on sand, go up in the weights and not show much, come back the following January, win a few more on sand, go up in the weights, come back the following January, win a few more on sand, etc, etc. Spotting this wouldn’t have been so easy looking at his form in a linear style, as his form figures before his first run in January wouldn’t have suggested he was a winner waiting to happen, but those in the know would have been waiting! I only became aware of this trend after it had already begun, but I was able to take advantage of it for a couple of winters.
Finding performance patterns as stark as this one doesn’t happen very often, but less subtle ones are there if you take the time to look for them and it’s for this reason that I’m waiting for a horse called Kingston Kurrajong to reappear in a Class 5 handicap over 1m at Kempton, especially when he is returning to the track within a month or so of his previous start. Again it’s only by looking at his form in a tabular format that I have latched on to him, as his record under these conditions reads 112 (the defeat came by just a head). Also a recent run is of paramount importance as on all 21 occasions in which he has finished in the first three, he was returning to the track within 36 days or less since his previous outing, hence his ordinary effort at Kempton in June when returning from 251 days off.